A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."